So the answer to last weeks question is……no!

In theory, knowing that on average approximately 2 out of 3 trades are losing trades means betting on this could generate a profit. I looked at a couple of different ways to do this and found one possible way, options trading. I went away and trialled this strategy on a paper trading account and quickly found it was in fact very difficult to pull off.

The problem with using options is that it relies on timing. I calculated that the average losing trade took around 3.5 months to play out and as is the nature of an average, some happened sooner and some later. I worked out approximately 60% of trades lost within 9 months. This means 40% were winning trades or the loss took longer than 9 months to play out. The problem with placing options trades 9 months ahead means that if the trade did close out within that time the buy out costs cause the advantage to be lost.

Oh well, it was worth a try hey! It was an interesting experiment and it has got me very familiar with options strategies so that is no bad thing. I think it does however confirm that there is no free lunch in trading and I should remind myself not to get greedy.

Anyhow …. a quick update on what i’ve been up to the past few weeks and why things have been a bit slow on the blog. I’ve started a new job and have moved across to the private sector after nearly 10 years in the public sector. I’m intrigued what differences are in store and am excited about a new adventure.

With regards to the blog I have this week updated the trading log, something that was well overdue.

A short post this week but as always if you have any questions or anything to add please get in touch using the comments section, the contact page at or email me at

Categories: Trading

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *